據(jù)路透社4月15日專欄報(bào)道——盡管近期的產(chǎn)量和需求數(shù)據(jù)，加上夏季旅行駕車(chē)需求的樂(lè)觀前景，可能會(huì)為玉米生物燃料帶來(lái)一些樂(lè)觀情緒，美國(guó)玉米預(yù)估供應(yīng)受乙醇產(chǎn)量拖累仍在向多年低點(diǎn)下滑。

　　在截至4月9日的四周內(nèi)，美國(guó)乙醇產(chǎn)量平均日產(chǎn)量為95.1萬(wàn)桶，低于11月和12月的近期高點(diǎn)，較2017-2019年同期平均水平低6.6%。這種背離常態(tài)的結(jié)果仍是疫情后最好的結(jié)果。

　　最新的產(chǎn)量平均值反映出，與3月底的水平相比，產(chǎn)量略有下降，這在一定程度上與今年同期的季節(jié)性趨勢(shì)一致。

　　2020年3月底，由于疫情的爆發(fā)，乙醇產(chǎn)量首次出現(xiàn)偏離典型水平，因此不應(yīng)再進(jìn)行同比比較。2020年之前的三年為“正常”提供了一個(gè)良好的基準(zhǔn)，因?yàn)檫@三年包含了一個(gè)強(qiáng)年產(chǎn)量、一個(gè)弱年產(chǎn)量和一個(gè)平均年產(chǎn)量。

　　由于近期需求超過(guò)產(chǎn)量，美國(guó)乙醇庫(kù)存已跌至7年低點(diǎn)。截至4月9日，乙醇庫(kù)存總計(jì)2,050萬(wàn)桶，兩個(gè)月內(nèi)減少了近16%。由于幾乎所有的美國(guó)汽油都與生物燃料混合使用，因此汽油需求趨勢(shì)與乙醇產(chǎn)量密切相關(guān)。上周，向市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)的成品汽油平均每天為894萬(wàn)桶，是疫情期間情況良好程度排名第二的一周。最近四周，天然氣需求僅比疫情爆發(fā)前的平均水平低6%，為疫情后的最小利潤(rùn)率。

　　在錯(cuò)過(guò)了2020年的假期后，美國(guó)人渴望在今夏出行。美國(guó)去年的旅游支出預(yù)計(jì)下降了42%，駕車(chē)率下降了13%，為2001年以來(lái)的最低水平。美國(guó)航空客運(yùn)量下降了60%，為1984年以來(lái)的最低水平。

　　但是疫苗接種的進(jìn)展和旅游預(yù)訂的增加已經(jīng)使夏天變得更加繁忙。美國(guó)航空 (American Airlines)周三表示，由于預(yù)訂數(shù)量的增加，預(yù)計(jì)2021年夏季其國(guó)內(nèi)航班的載客容量將超過(guò)90%。

　　根據(jù)美國(guó)疾病控制與預(yù)防中心的數(shù)據(jù)，截至周三，超過(guò)37%的美國(guó)人至少接種了一劑新冠疫苗，23%的人已完全接種。疫苗接種的速度一直在加快，按照目前的速度，到6月初，70%的人口可以接種疫苗。

　　上周，美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部將2020-21年度玉米乙醇使用量預(yù)估上調(diào)了2500萬(wàn)蒲式耳，至49.75億蒲式耳，較2019-20年度的7年低點(diǎn)上漲2.4%。

　　從2016-17年開(kāi)始，這一預(yù)測(cè)比前三個(gè)連續(xù)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)年平均下降了9%。自9月1日本銷(xiāo)售年度開(kāi)始以來(lái)，每周乙醇產(chǎn)量比這三年同期平均低了約9.5%。

　　夏季旅行的良好前景增加了乙醇產(chǎn)量和需求在年中進(jìn)一步接近正常水平的可能性，不過(guò)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)從疫情中復(fù)蘇，明年的產(chǎn)量將面臨更大的爭(zhēng)議。

　　美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部2月份暫定2021-22年度用于乙醇生產(chǎn)的玉米產(chǎn)量為52億蒲式耳，較疫情爆發(fā)前水平下降約5%，不過(guò)該機(jī)構(gòu)將于下月發(fā)布一份新的評(píng)估報(bào)告。這一數(shù)字的任何增加都將加大玉米供應(yīng)的壓力，其規(guī)模可能會(huì)比預(yù)計(jì)的2020-21年的7年低點(diǎn)還要小。

　　裘寅 編譯自 路透社

　　原文如下：

　　U.S. ethanol trends slightly improve ahead of summer travel season

　　Projected U.S. corn supplies are still waning toward multi-year lows despite dragging ethanol output, though recent production and demand figures along with an upbeat outlook for the summer driving season should instill some optimism over the corn-based biofuel.

　　In the four weeks ended April 9, U.S. ethanol output averaged 951,000 barrels per day, off the recent highs observed in November and December and 6.6% below the 2017-2019 average for the same period. That departure from normal is a post-pandemic best.

　　The latest production average reflects a slight downturn from the late March levels, somewhat consistent with seasonal trends for the time of year.

　　Ethanol output first diverged from typical levels in late March 2020 due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, so year-on-year comparisons should no longer be made. The three years prior to 2020 provide a good baseline for “normal” since they contain one strong, one weaker and one average year of production.

　　With demand recently outpacing production, U.S. ethanol stocks have fallen to seven-year lows for the date. Stocks totaled 20.5 million barrels as of April 9, down nearly 16% in two months. Trends in gasoline demand track well with ethanol output since almost all U.S. gasoline is blended with the biofuel. Last week, finished motor gasoline supplied to the market averaged 8.94 million barrels per day, the second-best week in the virus era. In the latest four weeks, gas demand was just 6% below the pre-virus average, the smallest post-pandemic margin.

　　Americans are itching to get out this summer after largely missing out on vacations in 2020. Travel spending by Americans last year plunged an estimated 42% and U.S. driving fell by 13% to its lowest level since 2001. U.S. passenger airline traffic dropped 60% to the lightest since 1984.

　　But the vaccination progress and an increase in travel bookings are already setting up a much busier summer. American Airlines said on Wednesday it expects to fly more than 90% of its domestic seat capacity in the summer of 2021 based on a boost in reservations.

　　By Wednesday, more than 37% of Americans had received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine and 23% had been fully inoculated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The pace of vaccinations has been increasing, but 70% of the population could be vaccinated by early June at the current rate.

　　Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its 2020-21 corn use for ethanol estimate by 25 million bushels to 4.975 billion bushels, up 2.4% from 2019-20’s seven-year low.

　　On average, that forecast is down 9% from the previous three uninterrupted marketing years starting with 2016-17. Since the start of the current marketing year on Sept. 1, weekly ethanol production has averaged about 9.5% below the same period in those three years.

　　Good prospects for summer travel increase the odds for ethanol output and demand to inch even closer to normal levels into mid-year, though next year’s volumes are subject to greater debate as the economy continues to recover from the pandemic.

　　USDA in February tentatively slated 2021-22 corn used for ethanol at 5.2 billion bushels, down about 5% from pre-virus levels, though the agency will issue a fresh assessment next month. Any increase in this number will amplify pressure to new-crop corn supplies, which could be even smaller than the seven-year low predicted for 2020-21.