據(jù)石油新聞2021年4月11日迪拜報道，根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發(fā)布的中東和中亞地區(qū)展望報告，由于油價上漲和經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的預(yù)期，中東石油出口國平衡國家預(yù)算所需的盈虧平衡油價在2021年和2022年預(yù)計將大幅下降。

　　根據(jù)IMF 4月11日發(fā)布的最新統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，沙特阿拉伯平衡國家預(yù)算所需的盈虧平衡油價預(yù)計將從2020年的77.9美元/桶下降到今年的76.20美元/桶，并在2022年進(jìn)一步下降到65.70美元/桶。

　　與此同時，IMF表示，阿曼的盈虧平衡油價預(yù)計將從2020年的95.8美元/桶降至2021年的72.3美元/桶，而阿聯(lián)酋的盈虧平衡油價預(yù)計將從2020年的68.2美元/桶降至64.6美元/桶。相比之下，科威特的盈虧平衡油價預(yù)計將從2020年的68.1美元/桶升至2021年的69.3美元/桶，但到2022年將降至64.5美元/桶。今年伊拉克的盈虧平衡油價預(yù)計將從去年的63.7美元/桶升至71.3美元/桶。

　　IMF在一份報告中表示，“2020年，中東地區(qū)的財政賬目大幅惡化，反映出國內(nèi)需求萎縮和油價暴跌導(dǎo)致的收入減少，以及為減輕疫情影響而采取的政策支持措施。”“與石油進(jìn)口國相比，石油出口國的公共財政狀況惡化幅度更大，這反映出石油收入減少。”

　　IMF的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中東和北非地區(qū)的財政赤字從2019年占GDP的3.8%擴(kuò)大到2020年的10.1%。

　　IMF表示，較高的油價和疫苗的早期推廣，特別是在阿聯(lián)酋，支持了許多海灣合作委員會經(jīng)濟(jì)體的前景改善。

　　IMF中東和中亞事務(wù)主任吉哈德·阿祖爾在4月11日的新聞發(fā)布會上說，“阿聯(lián)酋是該地區(qū)在早期接種疫苗方面最先進(jìn)的國家之一”。他表示，“這使阿聯(lián)酋經(jīng)濟(jì)得以適應(yīng)第二波疫情浪潮沖擊，并應(yīng)有助于經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”他說，計劃在今年10月在迪拜舉行的Expo 2020峰會“將為非石油經(jīng)濟(jì)提供額外的推動。”

　　李峻 編譯自 石油新聞

　　原文如下:

　　Middle East oil exporters will see lower breakevens even as prices stall: IMF

　　The breakeven oil prices that Middle Eastern countries need to balance their state budgets are largely projected to fall in 2021 and 2022 on expectations of higher oil prices and economic recoveries, according to the International Monetary Fund's regional outlook for Middle East and Central Asia.

　　Saudi Arabia's breakeven price is expected to drop to $76.20/b this year from $77.90/b in 2020, and fall further to $65.70/b in 2022, according to IMF data released April 11.

　　Meanwhile, Oman's breakeven price will fall to $72.30/b in 2021 from $95.80/b in 2020 while the UAE's breakeven price declines to $64.60/b from $68.20/b in 2020, the IMF said. In contrast, Kuwait's fiscal breakeven price is expected to inch up to $69.30/b in 2021 from $68.10/b in 2020, but decrease to $64.50/b in 2022. Iraq's breakeven price is projected to increase to $71.30/b in 2021 from $63.70/b last year.

　　"Fiscal accounts deteriorated sharply across the region in 2020, reflecting lower revenue because of contracting domestic demand and the slump in oil prices, as well as policy support measures to mitigate the pandemic's impact," the IMF said in a report. "Oil exporters recorded a larger deterioration in their public finances than oil importers did, reflecting lower oil revenue."

　　For the Middle East and North Africa region, fiscal deficits widened to 10.1% of GDP in 2020 from 3.8% in 2019, according to the IMF.

　　Higher oil prices and early vaccine rollouts, especially in the UAE, support the improved outlook for many Gulf Cooperation Council economies, the IMF said.

　　"UAE was one of the most advanced countries in the region in early inoculators" against the pandemic, Jihad Azour, the IMF's director of the Middle East and Central Asia, said at an April 11 press conference. "This allowed the UAE economy to adjust to the second wave" and should help the economic recovery, he said. Expo 2020, the international fair planned in Dubai in October this year, "will provide an additional boost to the non-oil economy," he said.