據烴加工在線4月8日消息，路透社看到的一份政府文件草案顯示，俄羅斯預計新冠疫情大流行對全球石油和石油產品消費的影響可能會持續到2023-2024年。

報告還指出，全球主要經濟體的脫碳行動對俄羅斯石油行業構成潛在威脅，而石油行業是俄羅斯預算收入的關鍵來源。

全球石油和液體燃料產量從2019年的1.0061億桶/天下降到2020年的9425萬桶/天。新冠疫情大流行導致了封鎖，80%的空中交通和四分之一的道路交通在新冠疫情高峰時中斷，并降低了燃料消耗。

歐佩克預計，根據其基本假設，今年石油需求將增加560萬桶/日。俄羅斯能源部副部長諾瓦克也預測了類似的增長。

這份草案概述了2035年前石油行業的發展，同時也表明，由于石油生產和出口的限制，俄羅斯可能會失去全球石油市場份額。

報告稱，2025年前全球油價可能會在每桶50至75美元之間波動，而在2025年至2030年期間，油價可能會在每桶50至60美元之間波動，而且不太可能大幅跌破50美元。

張春曉 摘譯自 烴加工在線

原文如下：

Russia sees COVID-19 impact on oil demand to last until 2023-2024

Russia expects the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic on the global consumption of oil and oil products may last until 2023-2024, a draft government document, seen by Reuters, showed.

It also cites the decarbonization of leading global economies as a potential threat to its oil industry, a key source for Moscow's budget revenue.

World oil and liquid fuels production fell in 2020 to 94.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from 100.61 million bpd in 2019, amid the pandemic, which led to lockdowns, halting 80% of air traffic and a quarter of road traffic at its peak and denting fuel consumption.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects oil demand to grow by 5.6 million barrels per day this year under its base case scenario. Russian Deputy Energy Minister Alexander Novak has also projected similar growth.

The draft document, outlining oil industry developments until 2035, also showed that Russia could lose global oil market share due to curbs on oil production and exports.

It says global oil prices are likely to trade in the range of $50-$75 per barrel by 2025, while in the second half of 2020s prices are seen at $50-$60 per barrel and they are unlikely to fall significantly below $50.