據油價網4月7日消息稱，美國能源情報署在今年的夏季燃料展望中稱，今年夏天汽油價格可能觸及三年來最高水平。

該機構表示，預計新冠對美國燃料市場的影響將持續，但比去年有所減弱。他指出，疫苗接種活動和聯邦政府的刺激措施勢必會加強該國的經濟復蘇，并作為其中的一部分，刺激更大的燃料需求。

因此，EIA預測今年夏季汽油均價可能為2.78美元/加侖，高于去年的2.07美元/加侖。EIA指出，去年的駕駛季平均水平是2004年以來的最低水平，因為新冠破壞了需求。

該機構還表示，盡管今年基準原油價格將高于去年，但由于需求的增長，預計煉油利潤將提高。美國能源情報署預計，今年夏季的平均煉油利潤率將比2020年夏季的平均水平高出0.09美元/加侖，為0.45美元/加侖。

EIA稱，預計今年8月汽油消費量將觸及910萬桶/日的季節性峰值。這將大大高于去年8月記錄的850萬桶/天，但仍低于2019年8月新冠前的980萬桶/天的水平。

EIA稱，受疫情影響，汽油消費的上行潛力仍然有限。盡管創造了數十萬個新工作崗位，這通常意味著更多的出行和更高的汽油需求，但許多人可能會繼續在家工作，因為許多公司仍保持謹慎，或采用混合工作模式。

EIA表示：“盡管隨著越來越多的美國人接種疫苗且病例水平下降，與COVID-19相關的旅行建議和社會限制可能會在夏季得到緩解，但某些行為上的改變可能會更加持久，這可能會進一步限制汽油消費量的增長。這些行為變化的程度將導致EIA對汽油消費預測的不確定性。”

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價網

原文如下：

EIA: Gas Prices At the Pump Could Hit 3-Year High

Gasoline prices could hit the highest in three years this summer, the Energy Information Administration said in this year’s edition of its Summer Fuels Outlook.

The authority said it expected the impact of the pandemic on fuel markets in the United States to remain but weaken from last year, noting the vaccination drive and the federal government stimulus measures that are bound to reinforce the economic recovery of the country and, as part of it, spur greater fuel demand.

As a result, the EIA forecast gasoline prices could average $2.78 per gallon this summer, up from $2.07 per gallon last year. Last year’s average for the driving season was the lowest since 2004, the EIA noted, because of the pandemic, which destroyed demand.

The authority also said it expected refining margins to improve thanks to this improving demand, even though benchmark crude oil prices will be higher this year than last. At $0.45 per gallon, the average refining margin the EIA projected for this summer would be $0.09 per gallon higher than the average for summer 2020.

The EIA said it expected gasoline consumption to hit a seasonal peak of 9.1 million bpd this August. This would be substantially higher than the 8.5 million bpd it recorded for August last year but still lower than pre-pandemic levels, at 9.8 million bpd for August 2019.

The upside potential in gasoline consumption remains limited because of the pandemic, the EIA said. Despite the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs, which would typically mean more commuting and therefore higher gasoline demand, many people are likely to continue working from home as many companies remain cautious or adopt a hybrid work model.

“Although COVID-19 related travel recommendations and social restrictions are likely to ease over the summer as more Americans are vaccinated and case levels fall, some behavioral changes might be more lasting, which could further limit increases in gasoline consumption,” the EIA said. “The degree to which these behavioral changes will occur contributes to the uncertainty in EIA’s gasoline consumption forecast.”?