據3月16日Trade Arabia消息：沙特石油化工產品價格繼續保持上漲勢頭，在油價上漲超過30%的推動下，加上全球新冠肺炎疫苗分銷對健康需求的樂觀情緒，今年一季度聚合物產品平均價格環比上漲4-15％。

Al Rajhi Capital Research的數據顯示，最近由于美國冬季暴風雪造成的供應中斷，加上上游成本上升和下游需求健康，使得現貨價格較2019年均價高出18-56%。

“我們預測聚合物價格至少在一年中的大部分時間里都將保持在較高水平，這是由于供應緊張，以及全球需求逐步改善。然而，今年一季度平均原料價格同比上漲了30%，主要是受油價上漲推動，這可能會部分抵消大多數產品價差的改善。"

Al Rajhi表示:“盡管如此，由于受季節性因素影響，我們預計沙特生產商的關鍵原料(丙烷和丁烷)價格在未來幾個季度將逐漸下降。”

總的來說，沙特石油生產商很有可能從最近的油價飆升中受益，2021年利潤可能強勁復蘇(接近大多數公司2018年的水平)，這意味著今年可能會有更高的股息。

馮娟 摘譯自 Trade Arabia

原文如下：

Saudi petchem prices move up

Saudi petchem prices continued their upward momentum with average polymer product prices rising 4-15% q-o-q so far in Q1 2021, aided by an over 30% jump in oil prices, coupled with optimism over healthy demand amid distribution of Covid vaccines globally.

More recently, tight supply mainly due to US supply disruptions on account of winter storm, along with rising upstream costs and healthy downstream demand, has pushed current spot prices 18-56% above 2019 average prices, according to Al Rajhi Capital Research.

“We model polymer prices to remain at these elevated levels for at least a large part of the year, on the back of tight supply (peak turnaround season ahead in China from April), and a gradual improvement in demand worldwide. However, average feedstock prices jumped 30% q-o-q in Q1 2021, primarily driven by increased oil prices, which could partially offset the likely improvement in spreads for most products.

“Nonetheless, we expect key feedstock (Propane & Butane) prices for Saudi producers to gradually come down in the coming quarters, due to seasonal factors (generally higher in Q1 and Q4),” Al Rajhi said.

Overall, Saudi petchem producers are well-placed to benefit from the recent surge in prices and are likely to witness a strong recovery in earnings (near to 2018 levels for most companies) in 2021, implying a possibility of higher dividends this year.