據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)10月13日巴黎報道，國際能源署(IEA)表示，預(yù)計太陽能發(fā)電量將在未來10年引領(lǐng)可再生能源供應(yīng)的激增，在當(dāng)前條件下，可再生能源將占全球發(fā)電量增長的80%。

在周二發(fā)布的年度《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中，IEA在其核心情景(反映了IEA已宣布的政策意圖和目標(biāo))中表示，到2025年，可再生能源有望取代煤炭，成為主要的發(fā)電方式。

據(jù)該報告稱，太陽能光伏發(fā)電(PV)和風(fēng)能在全球發(fā)電中的總份額將從2019年的8%上升到2030年的近30%，太陽能光伏發(fā)電能力將以平均每年12%的速度增長。

IEA執(zhí)行干事法提赫·比羅爾(Fatih Birol)表示，我認(rèn)為太陽能將成為世界電力市場的新霸主。根據(jù)目前的政策設(shè)置，2022年以后每年的部署都有望創(chuàng)新紀(jì)錄。

IEA表示，成熟的技術(shù)和支持機(jī)制已經(jīng)削減了大型太陽能光伏項目的融資成本，從而幫助降低了整體發(fā)電成本。 太陽能光伏現(xiàn)在比大多數(shù)國家的新建燃煤或燃?xì)獍l(fā)電廠便宜。

總部位于巴黎的該機(jī)構(gòu)補(bǔ)充道，可再生能源發(fā)電是2020年持續(xù)增長的唯一主要能源。

據(jù)報告稱，更雄心勃勃的情況，包括到2050年實現(xiàn)凈零排放目標(biāo)，將使光伏發(fā)電的表現(xiàn)更加強(qiáng)勁。

該報告還指出，盡管太陽能和風(fēng)能發(fā)電有所增長，但碳排放預(yù)計在2020年下降24億噸之后，將在2021年回升，并在2027年超過2019年的水平，到2030年達(dá)到360億噸。

IEA表示，在許多情況下，長期目標(biāo)與具體的近期減排計劃之間仍存在差距。

該報告還表示，將新的風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電整合起來，將取決于包括配電網(wǎng)絡(luò)在內(nèi)的系統(tǒng)各部分的充分投資。

郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Solar the new 'king of electricity' as renewables make up bigger slice of supply: IEA

Solar output is expected to lead a surge in renewable power supply in the next decade, the International Energy Agency said, with renewables seen accounting for 80 per cent of growth in global electricity generation under current conditions.

In its annual World Energy Outlook on Tuesday, the IEA said in its central scenario - which reflects policy intentions and targets already announced - renewables are expected to overtake coal as the primary means of producing electricity by 2025.

The combined share of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind in global generation will rise to almost 30 per cent in 2030 from 8 per cent in 2019, it said, with solar PV capacity growing by an average 12 per cent a year.

"I see solar becoming the new king of the world's electricity markets," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. "Based on today's policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022."

Maturing technology and support mechanisms have cut financing costs for major solar PV projects, the IEA said, helping to bring down output costs overall. Solar PV is now cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, it said.

Power generation from renewables is the only major source of energy that continued to grow in 2020, the Paris-based agency added.

A more ambitious scenario, including for instance the adoption of net-zero emissions targets by 2050, would see PV electricity generation perform more strongly still, the report said.

Despite the increase in solar and wind power, carbon emissions are projected to pick up in 2021 after a 2.4 gigatonne (Gt) drop in 2020, and to exceed 2019 levels in 2027 before growing to 36 Gt in 2030, it added.

The IEA said gaps remain in many cases between long-term ambitions and specific near-term plans to curb emissions.

Integrating new wind and solar power will depend on adequate investment in all parts of the system, including distribution networks, the report added.

But revenue shortfalls - potentially arising from lower-than-expected demand, non-payment of bills, or the detoriating finances of utilities in developing economies - could make power grids a weak link.