據CNBC網站9月14日消息：歐佩克降低了對今年石油需求增長的預測，理由是印度和其他亞洲國家的復蘇低于預期，并警告稱明年下半年風險仍較高且傾向于下行。

在周一發布的月度報告中，產油國集團下調了對2020年全球石油需求的預期，將其平均日需求調整為9,020萬桶。較上月預估減少40萬桶，較上年同期減少950萬桶。

報告發布之際，能源市場參與者對經濟復蘇乏力和疫情后燃料需求受挫越來越感到擔憂。

中東占主導地位的歐佩克組織由一些世界上最大的石油生產國組成，該組織周一表示，由于第二季度所有次區域的石油需求下降低于預期，該組織已將經合組織國家的石油日需求上調約10萬桶。

然而，由于亞洲，特別是印度的石油需求表現疲軟，非經合組織地區的石油需求被下調了50萬桶/天。

展望未來，歐佩克表示，對亞洲石油需求的負面影響預計將持續到2021年上半年。

此外，包括印度在內的其他亞洲國家的經濟復蘇速度和石油需求增長潛力仍不確定。因此，歐佩克目前預計明年全球石油需求將增長660萬桶/天，至平均9,690萬桶/天。最新的預測比此前預測低了40萬桶。

國際基準布倫特原油周一報39.76美元/桶，下跌約0.2%；美國西德克薩斯中質原油(WTI)報37.26美元/桶，下跌約0.1%。

自今年年初以來，油價已下跌約40％。

馮娟 摘譯自 CNBC

原文如下：

OPEC cuts 2020 oil demand forecast, trims 2021 outlook on pandemic fallout

OPEC has cut its forecast for oil demand growth this year, citing a weaker-than-expected recovery in India and other Asian countries, and warned risks remain “elevated and skewed to the downside” for the first half of next year.

In a closely-watched monthly report published Monday, the group of oil-producing nations downwardly revised its outlook for global oil demand to an average of 90.2 million barrels per day in 2020. That’s down 400,000 bpd from the previous month’s estimate and reflects a contraction of 9.5 million bpd year-on-year.

The report comes as energy market participants become increasingly concerned about a faltering economic recovery and stumbling fuel demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Middle East-dominated group, which consists of some of the world’s largest oil producers, said on Monday it had revised oil demand in OECD countries up by around 100,000 bpd due to less-than-expected declines in all sub-regions during the second quarter.

However, oil demand was revised down by 500,000 bpd in the non-OECD region due to weaker oil demand performance in Asia, particularly in India.

Looking ahead, OPEC said the negative impact on oil demand in Asia was expected to persist through the first six months of 2021.

“Additionally, risks remain elevated and skewed to the downside, particularly in relation to the development of Covid-19 infection cases and potential vaccines,” the group said in the report.

“Furthermore, the speed of recovery in economic activities and oil demand growth potential in Other Asian countries, including India, remain uncertain,” it added.

As such, OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 6.6 million bpd to an average of 96.9 million bpd next year. This updated forecast was also 400,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $39.76 a barrel on Monday, down around 0.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $37.26, roughly 0.1% lower.

Oil prices have dropped around 40% since the start of the year.