據(jù)ICIS網(wǎng)站9月10日消息 國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)（IEA）周四表示，塑料回收利用的發(fā)展以及氫等清潔能源開發(fā)的推動(dòng)下，加之液體燃料需求的潛在下降，可能會(huì)限制未來幾十年的甲醇需求。

IEA補(bǔ)充稱，只有在對(duì)這些改革的承諾依然堅(jiān)定的情況下，這一目標(biāo)才能實(shí)現(xiàn)。

甲醇是化學(xué)品和燃料生產(chǎn)的關(guān)鍵中間體，預(yù)計(jì)在未來很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，其需求將繼續(xù)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

然而，根據(jù)IEA可持續(xù)發(fā)展設(shè)想（該機(jī)構(gòu)為世界在2070年前實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放制定的路線圖）消費(fèi)可能在2040年代中期達(dá)到峰值。

據(jù)IEA稱，推動(dòng)甲醇需求見頂?shù)闹饕蛩貙⑹撬芰匣厥招袠I(yè)的增長(zhǎng)，以及隨著電動(dòng)汽車（EV）行業(yè)和清潔氫動(dòng)力的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，運(yùn)輸行業(yè)液體燃料的使用量減少。

總部設(shè)在巴黎的該機(jī)構(gòu)在周四發(fā)布的《能源技術(shù)展望》報(bào)告中稱：“塑料回收利用的增加減少了甲醇生產(chǎn)的需求。”

燃料應(yīng)用占甲醇產(chǎn)量的三分之一左右，在該機(jī)構(gòu)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展設(shè)想下，液態(tài)燃料的使用將在這段時(shí)間內(nèi)基本絕跡。

王磊 摘譯自 ICIS

原文如下：

Growth of plastics recycling could help cap methanol demand – IEA

The development of plastics recycling and the potential drop in liquid fuels demand on the back of the development of clean energy sources such as hydrogen could cap methanol demand in the next decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

This would only be achieved if commitment to those reforms remains strong, it added.

Demand for methanol, a key intermediate in chemicals and fuels production, had been expected to continue to grow continuously well into the future.

However, under the IEA’s sustainable development scenario - a roadmap developed by the agency for the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 – consumption could peak in the mid-2040s.

The key drivers for methanol demand to peak would be the growth of the plastics recycling sector and reduced usage of liquid fuels in the transport sector as the electric vehicle (EV) sector and clean hydrogen power continue to grow, according to the IEA.

“Additional plastic recycling reduces the need for methanol production,” the Paris-headquartered agency said in its energy technology perspectives report, released on Thursday.

Fuel applications account for around a third of methanol production, and under the agency’s sustainable development scenario, liquid fuel use would be largely extinct under that timeline.