據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2020年8月7日報道，全球商業(yè)咨詢服務(wù)多元化供應(yīng)商IHS Markit日前把今明兩年布倫特原油的平均價格預(yù)測分別上調(diào)到了每桶42.35美元和每桶49.25美元，比其5月份的預(yù)測每桶分別上漲了7.09美元和5.25美元。

IHS Markit日前在發(fā)給美國鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份聲明中表示，石油市場已回到“相對穩(wěn)定的位置”，布倫特原油價格在每桶40-45美元的窄幅區(qū)間內(nèi)排徊。

IHS Markit補(bǔ)充說，除非“大量的”第二波病例導(dǎo)致廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)封閉，其預(yù)計布倫特原油的平均價格將保持在40美元至47美元，平均起來，在未來4個季度，這種大宗商品的價格“最終”可能在2021年下半年突破每桶50美元。

IHS Markit指出，石油市場目前正處于一個“微妙的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)”，正在向IHS Markit在5月份強(qiáng)調(diào)的3個復(fù)蘇階段中的第2個復(fù)蘇階段過渡。根據(jù)IHS Markit的數(shù)據(jù)，在第2個復(fù)蘇階段中，全球過剩的原油庫存被減少，而供應(yīng)也隨著備用供應(yīng)產(chǎn)能的恢復(fù)而增加。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

IHS Markit Raises Oil Price Forecast|

IHS Markit has raised its average Brent price outlook to $42.35 per barrel in 2020 and $49.25 per barrel in 2021 – an increase of $7.09 per barrel and $5.25 per barrel, respectively, from the company’s May outlook.

In a statement sent to Rigzone on Thursday, IHS Markit said oil markets had returned to “relatively stable ground” with Brent prices within a narrow $40 to $45 per barrel range. The company added that, barring a “l(fā)arge” second wave of Covid-19 cases driving widespread economic shutdowns, it expects Brent will stay within a $40 to $47 per barrel range, on average, over the next four quarters and projected that the commodity could “conclusively” pass the $50 per barrel mark in the second half of 2021.

IHS Markit noted that oil markets are now at a “delicate pivot point” as they transition to phase two of the three phases of recovery the company highlighted back in May. According to IHS Markit, phase two is a phase in which surplus inventories are worked down in parallel with rising supply as spare supply capacity returns.