據(jù)烴加工在線7月21日消息，四位追蹤發(fā)貨量的消息人士稱，亞洲裂解裝置預(yù)計(jì)將轉(zhuǎn)而使用更廉價(jià)的替代原料液化石油氣（LPG），以滿足石腦油供應(yīng)短缺的現(xiàn)狀，因?yàn)?月來自西方的石腦油供應(yīng)將降至四個(gè)月低點(diǎn)。

這幾位消息人士稱，由于歐洲減產(chǎn)，8月份從歐洲、地中海和美國出口至亞洲市場的石腦油貨運(yùn)量將從5月份的紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)下降至少40%，降至160萬噸至170萬噸。他們表示，這比7月份的出口量下降了約7-9%。

預(yù)計(jì)亞洲石腦油買家將轉(zhuǎn)向價(jià)格最近開始走軟的LPG。目前，大多數(shù)買家的裂解裝置正在開足馬力進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)。這可能對石腦油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格和利潤率造成進(jìn)一步壓力。

運(yùn)營石腦油裂解裝置的石化生產(chǎn)商通常可以用LPG替代5%至15%的關(guān)鍵原料石腦油。

盡管多數(shù)裂解裝置運(yùn)營商們擁有LPG的定期供應(yīng)，但它們會(huì)購買一些現(xiàn)貨，但只有在LPG價(jià)格對石腦油價(jià)格每噸至少有50美元的折扣時(shí)才會(huì)購買。LPG(一種丙烷和丁烷的混合物)的強(qiáng)勁需求，使其現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格一直居高不下，直到6月份。

張春曉 摘譯自 烴加工在線

原文如下：

Asia naphtha market under pressure as crackers eye cheaper alternative LPG

Crackers in Asia are expected to switch to cheaper alternative feedstock LPG to meet shortfalls of naphtha whose supplies from the west is set to drop to a four-month low in August, four sources who track the shipments said.

Cumulative east-bound naphtha cargoes from Europe, the Mediterranean and the United States will fall at least 40% in August to 1.6 million-1.7 million tons from May’s record high due to run cuts in Europe, they said. That is about 7-9% lower versus July, they said.

Buyers, most of whom are operating their crackers at full-tilt, are expected to turn to LPG, whose prices have recently started weakening. That could exert further pressure on naphtha spot prices and margins.

Petrochemical makers who operate naphtha crackers typically can replace 5% to 15% of their key feedstock with LPG.

While most have term supplies of LPG, they would buy some spot cargoes but only when the prices are trading at a discount of at least $50 a tonne to naphtha.

Strong demand for LPG, a mixture of propane and butane, had kept its spot prices high until June.