據美國鉆井網站2020年7月7日報道，據挪威雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）預測，在第二波疫情的影響下，今年全球的石油日需求量可能會減少250萬桶。

Restad指出，在包括美國在內的幾個國家里，第二波疫情已經“越來越明顯”。Rystad對更廣泛的第二波疫情對全球石油需求的影響進行了建模，結果顯示，全球石油日需求量可能從目前基本情況估計的8900萬桶跌至8650萬桶。

盡管Rystad預計第二波Covid-19對全球石油需求的影響不會像第一波那樣強烈，因為限制性措施僅限于特定地區和行業，但Rystad仍警告說，高峰月份的需求影響可能會在第二波疫情中達到1800萬桶/天。Rystad強調，第一波Covid-19疫情造成的需求負增長最嚴重的月份是4月份，當月的需求增長為-2600萬桶/天。

Rystad表示，如果第二波疫情影響需求成為現實，明年全球石油需求的復蘇將會慢得多。根據Rystad目前的基本方案，Rystad預計全球每月石油需求量將日減400萬至500萬桶，并適時將新冠病毒疫情大流行對市場的影響的時間進一步拖長。

Rystad指出，無論需求出現何種程度的意外下滑，都將“導致油價暴跌”。Rystad補充稱，如果世界出現第二波疫情大流行，市場的儲存“頭疼問題”將嚴重惡化。

Rystad在發給美國鉆井網站的一份公司聲明中稱：“在最近幾個月的大量原油庫存被抵消之前，油價不可能大幅上漲。”

Rystad補充說，這意味著只要供應和需求在相反的軌道上運行，即供應上升和需求下降，油價就將繼續存在相當大的下行風險。疫情的第二波傳播將延長這些產品儲存的時間，并向煉油廠發出撤退的信號。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

The Effects of a 2nd Covid Wave on Oil

Oil demand in 2020 could lose an additional 2.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in a second Covid-19 wave scenario, according to Rystad Energy.

The company outlined that a second wave of the pandemic is already “increasingly apparent” in several countries, including the United States. Modelling the effect of an even wider second wave, Rystad revealed that demand could tumble to 86.5MMbpd from its current base case estimate of 89MMbpd.

Although Rystad outlined that it doesn’t expect the oil demand impact of a second wave to be as strong as the first outbreak as it sees restrictive measures being limited to particular regions and sectors, it still warned of a peak month demand impact of -18MMbpd in a second wave. The most severe month for negative demand impact as a result of the first wave was -26MMbpd back in April, Rystad highlighted.

If the second wave materializes, global oil demand will recover much slower in 2021, according to the company. It will land between 4MMbpd and 5MMbpd lower per month than it would under Rystad’s current base case and drag the pandemic’s market effect further in time, the company predicted.

An unexpected dip of any magnitude in demand will “send the oil price into a tailspin” Rystad noted, adding that the market’s storage “headache” will greatly worsen if there is a second wave.

“A significant oil price boost cannot occur until the massive crude stock builds of recent months are neutralized,” Rystad said in a company statement which was sent to Rigzone.

“This means that oil prices will continue to carry considerable downside risk as long as the supply and demand dynamics are moving in opposing trajectories – with supply up and demand down. A second wave of the virus would prolong the timeline these products sit in storage, and signal to refineries to pull back,” Rystad added.