據世界石油7月1日休斯敦報道，由于疫情給化石燃料的需求前景注入了新的不確定性，美國最大的石油公司正面臨來自關注氣候問題的投資者越來越大的壓力，要求他們披露原油價格的長期預測。

埃克森美孚和雪佛龍不公布這樣的估計數字，這意味著股東無法更嚴格地審查兩家公司的投資計劃與全球向清潔能源過渡的預期是否相符。紐約州共同退休基金、加利福尼亞州教師退休系統和總部位于波士頓的擁有30萬億美元資產的投資者聯盟Ceres表示，這種情況需要改變。

在歐洲，主要的石油公司正在分享他們的長期預測，并取得了令人矚目的結果。兩周前， BP公司表示，已大幅下調了對布倫特原油的長期價格預期，造成了多達175億美元的減記。荷蘭皇家殼牌周二警告說，由于疫情打擊了從石油到液化天然氣等各種商品的需求，該公司第二季度將減記多達220億美元的資產。

長期價格假設至關重要，因為大型石油公司用它們來確定某種資源在經濟上是否可行，以及該資源在公司賬面上的價值。活動人士和一些投資者表示，企業對未來原油價格的評估可能過于樂觀。這可能導致他們建造昂貴的項目，從而在向低碳燃料源過渡的世界中實際上變得毫無價值（所謂的擱淺資產）。

負責監管紐約州共同退休基金的紐約州審計署發言人馬克?約翰遜(Mark Johnson)表示:“埃克森美孚和雪佛龍應該更加透明，披露長期價格預測和其他信息，投資者需要這些信息來評估公司的低碳轉型計劃。如果沒有這些信息，投資者就無法評估埃克森美孚和雪佛龍對氣候變化的威脅是認真的，還是僅僅空口相傳。”

裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Investors pressure Exxon, Chevron to disclose long-term oil price forecasts

America’s biggest oil companies are coming under increasing pressure from climate-conscious investors to disclose their long-term forecasts for crude prices as the Covid-19 pandemic injects fresh uncertainty into the demand outlook for fossil fuels.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. don’t publish such estimates, meaning that shareholders are less able to scrutinize how the companies’ investment plans square with expectations for a global transition to clean energy. That needs to change, according to the New York State Common Retirement Fund, California State Teachers’ Retirement System, and Ceres, a Boston-based coalition of investors with $30 trillion of assets.

In Europe, major oil companies are sharing their long-term forecasts, with dramatic results. Two weeks ago, BP Plc said it had radically reduced its long-term price assumption for Brent crude, causing a writedown of as much as $17.5 billion. Royal Dutch Shell Plc warned Tuesday that it would write down as much as $22 billion in the second quarter as the pandemic hammers demand for everything from oil to liquefied natural gas.

Long-term price assumptions are critical because they’re used by Big Oil to determine whether or not a resource will be economically viable and at what value it’s held on a company’s books. Activists and some investors say companies are at risk of being overly optimistic in their assessment of future crude prices. That could lead to them to build expensive projects that effectively become worthless — so-called stranded assets — in a world transitioning toward low-carbon fuel sources.

“Exxon and Chevron should be more transparent and disclose long-term price forecasts and other information that investors need to assess their companies’ low-carbon transition plans,” said Mark Johnson, a spokesman for the Office of the New York State Comptroller, which oversees the New York State Common Retirement Fund. “Without this information, investors cannot assess whether Exxon and Chevron are serious, or just paying lip service to the threat of climate change.”