EIA日前表示，Henry Hub天然氣日均現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格已跌至1998年12月以來的最低水平。

美國(guó)能源信息管理局引用天然氣情報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)指出，2020年6月16日，Henry Hub價(jià)格達(dá)到1.38美元/百萬英熱單位(MMBtu)，這是自1998年12月以來，不考慮通貨膨脹和名義美元的Henry Hub期貨跌至最低價(jià)格。

在2020年開始相對(duì)較低的價(jià)格之后，今年夏天到目前為止，Henry Hub的價(jià)格持續(xù)走低，原因是天然氣儲(chǔ)存水平較高，以及天然氣需求的下降，特別是液化天然氣(LNG)原料氣出口和工業(yè)部門的需求。

在經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)暖冬之后，4月30日，供暖季結(jié)束時(shí)的天然氣庫存比5年平均水平高出21%(3950億立方英尺)，比去年季末的水平高出50%(7720億立方英尺)。自那以后，由于需求下降，天然氣的凈注入量增加，這些差異繼續(xù)很大。

截至6月12日，天然氣儲(chǔ)備水平比5年平均水平高出17%(419億立方英尺)，比去年高出33%(722億立方英尺)。

較高的儲(chǔ)存量表明天然氣產(chǎn)量相對(duì)于消費(fèi)者需求較高。6月份的短期能源展望(STEO)預(yù)測(cè)，到2020年10月底，天然氣儲(chǔ)量將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的4.1萬億立方英尺。

近幾周，輸往液化天然氣出口終端的原料氣數(shù)量較低，也對(duì)天然氣價(jià)格構(gòu)成下行壓力。今年6月到目前為止，輸往液化天然氣終端的天然氣平均日產(chǎn)量為40億立方英尺(Bcf/d)，比去年同期減少了14億立方英尺，比3月底預(yù)計(jì)的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的日產(chǎn)量減少了50多億立方英尺。

此外，為減緩2019年新冠病毒(COVID-19)蔓延而實(shí)施的政策導(dǎo)致商業(yè)和制造業(yè)活動(dòng)減少，也導(dǎo)致工業(yè)消費(fèi)者對(duì)天然氣的需求減弱。

據(jù)標(biāo)普全球普氏能源咨詢公司(S&P Global Platts)估計(jì)，2020年6月的工業(yè)天然氣平均消費(fèi)量比2019年6月下降了約21億立方英尺/天，降幅達(dá)9.6%。

今年夏天到目前為止，天然氣價(jià)格較低，導(dǎo)致發(fā)電廠對(duì)天然氣的消耗增加，因?yàn)榕c煤炭等其他燃料相比，天然氣在發(fā)電方面更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。與去年相比，6月份日均耗電量增長(zhǎng)了約6%。盡管今年6月到目前為止電力需求增長(zhǎng)基本持平，但仍出現(xiàn)了上述增長(zhǎng)。

天然氣價(jià)格處于歷史低位的另一個(gè)影響是天然氣產(chǎn)量下降。美國(guó)能源信息管理局指出，根據(jù)IHS Markit的數(shù)據(jù)，6月份的干產(chǎn)總量約為900億立方英尺/天，比2020年3月減少了近37億立方英尺/天。

最近需求的下降超過了產(chǎn)量的下降，給Henry Hub的價(jià)格帶來了下行壓力。然而，由于天然氣價(jià)格變化和生產(chǎn)水平調(diào)整之間存在時(shí)滯，預(yù)計(jì)天然氣產(chǎn)量將進(jìn)一步下降。

6月STEO預(yù)測(cè)干產(chǎn)量將繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步下降，到2021年5月達(dá)到842億立方英尺/天的低點(diǎn)。未來幾個(gè)月，天然氣產(chǎn)量的下降將給Henry Hub價(jià)格帶來上行壓力。6月份的STEO預(yù)計(jì)天然氣價(jià)格將在2020年底走高，并預(yù)測(cè)Henry Hub在12月份的平均價(jià)格將達(dá)到2.95美元/百萬英熱。

趙斌 編譯自 世界天然氣

原文如下：

EIA: Henry Hub dips to record lows

The Henry Hub average daily natural gas spot price has hit its lowest level since December 1998.

Citing Natural Gas Intelligence data, U.S. Energy Information Administration notes that the Henry Hub reached $1.38 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on June 16, 2020, the lowest daily Henry Hub price without adjusting for inflation and in nominal dollars since December 1998.

After starting 2020 relatively low, the price at Henry Hub so far this summer has continued to trend low because of high natural gas storage levels and declines in natural gas demand, specifically in exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas and in the industrial sector.

Following a mild winter, natural gas inventories ended the heating season on April 30 at 21 per cent (395 billion cubic feet (Bcf)) higher than the five-year average and 50 per cent (772 Bcf) higher than last year’s end-of-season levels. Since then, those differences have continued to remain wide as a result of falling demand, which has increased net natural gas injections into storage.

As of June 12, natural gas storage levels were 17 per cent (419 Bcf) higher than the five-year average and 33 per cent (722 Bcf) higher than last year.

High storage levels indicate high natural gas production relative to consumer demand. The June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts record natural gas in storage of nearly 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2020.

Low feedgas volumes delivered to LNG export terminals in recent weeks have also put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Natural gas deliveries to LNG terminals have averaged 4.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in June, which is 1.4 Bcf/d lower than feedgas volumes last year and more than 5.0 Bcf/d lower than the record-high feedgas volumes estimated in late March.

In addition, less business and manufacturing activity stemming from the policies put in place to mitigate the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have also led to weaker natural gas demand from industrial consumers.

Estimates from S&P Global Platts suggest that average industrial natural gas consumption in June 2020 has declined about 2.1 Bcf/d, or 9.6 per cent, compared to June 2019.

Low natural gas prices so far this summer have resulted in increased natural gas consumption by electric power plants (power burn) because natural gas has become more competitive for electricity generation compared to competing fuel sources, such as coal. The average daily power burn is up about 6 per cent in June compared to last year. This increase occurred despite essentially flat demand growth for electricity so far this June.

Another effect of historically low natural gas prices is declining natural gas production. According to data from IHS Markit, dry production totaled about 90 Bcf/d in June, down nearly 3.7 Bcf/d from March 2020, EIA notes.

The recent declines in demand have outpaced the declines in production, putting downward pressure on Henry Hub prices. However, further declines in natural gas production are expected as a result of lags between natural gas price changes and adjustments to production levels.

The June STEO forecasts dry production to continue declining steadily, reaching a low of 84.2 Bcf/d in May 2021. Declines in natural gas production will put upward pressure on the Henry Hub price in the coming months. The June STEO expects higher natural gas prices by the end of 2020, forecasting Henry Hub to average $2.95/MMBtu in December.