據(jù)路透社5月18日?qǐng)?bào)道，油價(jià)周一攀升逾1美元/桶，受減產(chǎn)和需求逐步復(fù)蘇的跡象支撐，且美國(guó)原油期貨沒(méi)有顯示出上月合約期滿(mǎn)后價(jià)格大跌的跡象。

格林尼治時(shí)間06：34，布倫特原油LCOc1上漲1.33美元，至每桶33.83美元，漲幅4.1%，此前曾觸及4月13日以來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)。美國(guó)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油期貨CLc1上漲1.65美元，至每桶31.08美元，漲幅5.6%，此前曾升至3月16日以來(lái)最高位。較為活躍的7月合約CLc2報(bào)31.05美元/桶，上漲1.53美元。

AxiCorp首席全球市場(chǎng)策略師斯蒂芬英尼斯(Stephen Innes)在一份報(bào)告中表示:“隨著流動(dòng)性限制放松力度的加大，油價(jià)可能會(huì)顯示出進(jìn)一步的上行勢(shì)頭。”

WTI 6月合約將于周二到期，但幾乎沒(méi)有跡象表明，WTI將重現(xiàn)上月5月合約到期前夕的歷史性暴跌。有跡象顯示，原油和衍生燃料需求正從低點(diǎn)回升。

由于美國(guó)能源公司連續(xù)第二個(gè)星期削減石油和天然氣鉆井平臺(tái)的數(shù)量，石油產(chǎn)量也在下降。這在一定程度上緩解了人們對(duì)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油合約交割地——俄克拉荷馬州庫(kù)欣存儲(chǔ)空間不足的擔(dān)憂(yōu)。

美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Federal Reserve)主席鮑威爾(Jerome Powell) 在今年晚些時(shí)候發(fā)表對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的樂(lè)觀展望，這種樂(lè)觀情緒得到了加強(qiáng)。鮑威爾在廣播講話中稱(chēng):“如果不出現(xiàn)第二次冠狀病毒疫情，我認(rèn)為，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將在今年下半年穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇。”

支撐油價(jià)的還有石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC)及其盟友的減產(chǎn)舉措，其中包括俄羅斯。世界最大的石油出口國(guó)沙特阿拉伯上周宣布，將在6月份再減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶/天，而歐佩克則希望在6月份會(huì)議結(jié)束后繼續(xù)減產(chǎn)。據(jù)科威特《Al Rai報(bào)》報(bào)道，科威特和沙特阿拉伯已同意從6月1日起，在一個(gè)月內(nèi)停止哈夫吉聯(lián)合油田的石油生產(chǎn)。

歐亞集團(tuán)(Eurasia Group)預(yù)計(jì)，由于石油需求只是緩慢回升，大幅減產(chǎn)將持續(xù)到2021年。該組織的分析師在一份報(bào)告中稱(chēng):“隨著政府放松封鎖，道路燃料的需求正在逐漸上升，但復(fù)蘇將是緩慢的。”

鄒勤 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil prices rise more than $1 ahead of June WTI contract expiry

Oil prices climbed by more than $1 a barrel on Monday, supported by output cuts and signs of a gradual recovery in demand amid easing coronavirus curbs, with U.S. oil showing no signs of last month’s contract expiry price rout.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up $1.33, or 4.1%, at $33.83 a barrel by 0634 GMT, after touching its highest since April 13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up $1.65, or 5.6%, at $31.08 a barrel, after rising to its highest since March 16. The more active July contract CLc2 was at $31.05, up $1.53.

“Oil prices may show further upside momentum as the easing in mobility restrictions grows,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at AxiCorp in a note, referring to curbs that were designed to counter the coronavirus.

The June WTI contract expires on Tuesday, but there was little indication of WTI repeating the historic plunge below zero seen last month on the eve of the May contract’s expiry amid signs that demand for crude and derived fuels is recovering from its nadir.

Production is also falling as U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating to an all-time low for a second consecutive week. That partly helped ease concerns about the WTI contract’s delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, running out of space.

The positive mood was reinforced as U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued an optimistic outlook for economic recovery later this year.

“Assuming there is not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you will see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year,” Powell said Sunday night in broadcast remarks.

Also supporting oil prices are production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+.

The world’s top exporter Saudi Arabia announced last week that it would cut an additional 1 million barrels per day in June, while OPEC+ wants to maintain existing oil cuts beyond June when the group is next due to meet.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have agreed to halt oil production from the joint Al-Khafji field for one month, starting from June 1, Kuwait’s Al Rai newspaper reported on Saturday.

Eurasia Group expects significant supply cuts to be maintained into 2021 as oil demand is only slowly picking up.

“Demand for road fuel is gradually rising as governments ease lockdowns, but recovery will be slow and there is a risk of repeat COVID-19 outbreaks and quarantine orders,” its analysts said in a note.