據(jù)今日油價(jià)5月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際能源署IEA表示，5月開(kāi)始，石油市場(chǎng)需求開(kāi)始回暖，但市場(chǎng)供需平衡在脆弱的復(fù)蘇道路上，仍面臨兩大不確定因素。

不確定因素之一是，歐佩克+成員國(guó)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)并保持減產(chǎn)。IEA表示，盡管歐佩克中東重量級(jí)國(guó)家沙特、阿聯(lián)酋和科威特承諾將進(jìn)一步削減石油產(chǎn)量，但整個(gè)歐佩克+集團(tuán)將如何繼續(xù)遵守減產(chǎn)，這一點(diǎn)非常不確定。

另一個(gè)不確定因素是，疫情傳播會(huì)不會(huì)再次加重。在經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)始重新開(kāi)放、封鎖得到緩解之后，包括意大利和英國(guó)等歐洲一些受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的國(guó)家在內(nèi)，如果疫情再次開(kāi)始上升，對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)的再平衡和油價(jià)復(fù)蘇來(lái)說(shuō)，一個(gè)更大的不確定性將再次出現(xiàn)。

這些不確定性如果出現(xiàn)，可能會(huì)危及IEA對(duì)全球石油市場(chǎng)的樂(lè)觀看法。國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)在5月份的報(bào)告中預(yù)計(jì)，2020年全球石油需求將下降860萬(wàn)桶/日，這是今年的一個(gè)重大需求損失，但略低于該機(jī)構(gòu)在4月份報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)的930萬(wàn)桶/日需求破壞。

二季度，IEA預(yù)計(jì)，需求將下降1990萬(wàn)桶/日。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

IEA: Oil Market Recovery Faces Two Major Uncertainties

Even after the ‘Black April’ ended and demand started to crawl up, the oil market and supply-demand balances continue to face two major uncertainties on its fragile road to recovery—a possible second wave of COVID-19 infections and potentially underwhelming OPEC+ compliance with the cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

In its Oil Market Report for May, the IEA noted that despite pledges both for deeper cuts and over-compliance from OPEC’s Middle East heavyweights Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, it is highly uncertain how compliant the whole OPEC+ group would remain with the production reductions. One of the biggest questions that the oil market faces is whether the OPEC+ participants could achieve and then keep the cuts, the IEA said.

An even bigger headache for the oil market rebalancing and oil price recovery is the major uncertainty if coronavirus infections will start rising again in a second wave, after economies have started to re-open and lockdowns are being eased, including in some of the worst hit countries in Europe such as Italy and the United Kingdom.

“These are big questions – and the answers we get in the coming weeks will have major consequences for the oil market,” the Paris-based agency said.

These uncertainties, if realized, could put at risk the IEA’s slightly more optimistic view on the global oil market this month compared to last month. In the May report, the IEA expects global oil demand to drop by 8.6 million bpd in 2020—a major demand loss this year, but slightly less than the 9.3-million-bpd demand destruction the agency had predicted in its report in April.

For Q2 2020 alone, the IEA expects demand to plunge by 19.9 million bpd compared to last year’s consumption levels.