據(jù)油田技術(shù)5月5日報道，盡管全球正面臨著有史以來最大的石油過剩，但未來幾年形勢將發(fā)生巨大變化。雷斯塔能源公司預(yù)測，目前注重成本的勘探與生產(chǎn)公司缺乏活動和投資計劃，加上全球石油需求不可避免地出現(xiàn)反彈，預(yù)計2025年將造成約500萬桶/日的供應(yīng)缺口，價格有望突破68美元/桶，以平衡市場。

雷斯塔能源公司表示，2025年全球?qū)σ后w的需求將達到約1.05億桶/日。疫情發(fā)生前，該公司預(yù)計供應(yīng)將略高于需求。然而，由于今年危機帶來的投資和活動的急劇縮減，雷斯塔能源公司現(xiàn)在估計，上游行業(yè)的下行周期將使2025年的產(chǎn)量預(yù)測減少約600萬桶/日。

為了填補這一缺口，雷斯塔能源公司認為，一些歐佩克核心成員國，如沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和阿聯(lián)酋，將能夠提高產(chǎn)量。總的來說，這些國家可能會填補每天300萬到400萬桶的缺口。剩余的缺口很可能將由美國致密油的產(chǎn)量填補。

雷斯塔能源上游研究機構(gòu)Espen Erlingsen負責人表示：“當前的低油價使中期供需平衡大大收緊。盡管致密油產(chǎn)量高增長，但預(yù)計未來5年，歐佩克中東國家以外的石油產(chǎn)量將保持平穩(wěn)。隨著需求有望復(fù)蘇，歐佩克核心成員國將需要大幅增加供應(yīng)，否則市場將面臨比我們的基本情況預(yù)測更高的價格。”

今年全球勘探與生產(chǎn)活動預(yù)計將大幅下降，因為上游公司試圖應(yīng)對挑戰(zhàn)性的市場環(huán)境，導致傳統(tǒng)的項目批準活動降至40年來的最低水平，今年致密油投資下降近50%。較低活動水平的影響因供應(yīng)部門而異。

對于致密油（包括天然氣），其對產(chǎn)量的影響相當直接，雷斯塔能源公司已將其2020年的預(yù)測降低了近190萬桶/日。新的致密油井大幅減少也將產(chǎn)生長期影響，因為可供生產(chǎn)的油井將減少。對于2025年，Rystad的致密油總產(chǎn)量預(yù)測被修正為1800萬桶/日，比我們危機前的預(yù)測低270萬桶/日。

洪偉立 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Rystad Energy: global investment slowdown set to hike oil prices and cause undersupply of 5 million bpd in 2025

The Covid-19 pandemic will leave not only short-term, but also long-term scars on the oil market. Even though the world is currently facing what is arguably the largest oil glut ever recorded, the tables will turn dramatically in coming years. The lack of activity and investments currently planned by cost-conscious E&P firms, combined with an inevitable rebound in global oil demand, is set to cause a supply deficit of around 5 million bpd in 2025, Rystad Energy calculates, with prices seen topping US$68/bbl to balance the market.

In Rystad's base case scenario, global demand for liquids in 2025 will reach around 105 million bpd. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Rystad Energy expected supply to slightly exceed demand. However, due to the steep curtailment of investments and activity that the current crisis has brought this year, Rystad Energy now estimates that the downcycle in the upstream industry will remove about 6 million bpd from production forecasts for 2025.

To fill this gap, Rystad Energy believes that some of the core OPEC countries, like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, will be able to ramp up production. In total these countries might fill 3 million to 4 million bpd of this gap. The remaining shortfall will most likely be filled with volumes from US tight oil. To achieve this, prices may move above our current base case, which currently stands at an average price of US$68/bbl in 2025.

“The current low oil price has tightened the medium-term supply and demand balance considerably. Despite high growth in tight oil, oil production outside the OPEC Middle East countries is expected to stay flat over the next five years. As demand is expected to recover, the core OPEC counties will need to increase their supply significantly or the market will face even higher prices than our base-case forecast,” said Rystad Energy Head of Upstream Research Espen Erlingsen.

Global E&P activity is poised to fall dramatically this year as upstream companies try to cope with the challenging market conditions, resulting in conventional project sanctioning activity falling to a 40-year low and tight oil investments dropping by almost 50% this year. The impact of the lower activity levels varies depending on the supply segment.

For tight oil (including NGL) the impact on production is rather immediate, and Rystad has reduced its 2020 forecast by close to 1.9 million bpd. The dramatic reduction in new tight oil wells will also have a long-term impact, as fewer wells will be available for production. For 2025 Rystad's total tight oil production forecast is revised to 18 million bpd, or 2.7 million bpd lower than our pre-crisis estimate.