頁巖油在全球石油行業(yè)地位或?qū)⒈淮蚱?/h1>

作者： 2020年04月24日 來源：中國石化新聞網(wǎng) 瀏覽量：

字號：T | T

據(jù)世界石油4月22日休斯敦報(bào)道，原油價(jià)格的歷史性大跌正在推動(dòng)美國頁巖油全面撤退，運(yùn)營商停止新的鉆探并關(guān)閉舊井，此舉可能會(huì)使世界最大石油生產(chǎn)國美國的產(chǎn)量減少20%。

據(jù)世界石油4月22日休斯敦報(bào)道，原油價(jià)格的歷史性大跌正在推動(dòng)美國頁巖油全面撤退，運(yùn)營商停止新的鉆探并關(guān)閉舊井，此舉可能會(huì)使世界最大石油生產(chǎn)國美國的產(chǎn)量減少20%。

對于頁巖油公司而言，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)的價(jià)格在短短幾天內(nèi)就從“暴跌倒走”模式轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槲C(jī)模式，許多公司現(xiàn)在甚至不確定他們的石油是否還會(huì)有市場。IHS Markit的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前每天約有175萬桶原油面臨停產(chǎn)的直接風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而到今年年底，新投產(chǎn)的油井?dāng)?shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將下暴跌90%。

簡而言之，這是頁巖革命的一個(gè)迅速而殘酷的終結(jié)，就在去年，美國還曾宣稱“美國在能源領(lǐng)域占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位”。

周一，WTI原油價(jià)格出現(xiàn)了歷史上的首次負(fù)值，這意味著賣方曾一度不得不付錢給買方將其收走。隨后，5月合約的資金緊張蔓延至6月，并波及更廣泛的市場，目前油價(jià)在每桶10美元左右，遠(yuǎn)低于美國大部分石油行業(yè)的日常成本。

IHS Markit駐休斯敦分析師Raoul LeBlanc稱，即便油價(jià)維持在15美元，“除了最新，生產(chǎn)效率最高的油井以外，該領(lǐng)域的所有東西都在現(xiàn)金成本基礎(chǔ)上虧損。”

在最近的價(jià)格暴跌開始僅僅六周后，運(yùn)營商正在關(guān)閉油井，三分之一的鉆井設(shè)備退役，放棄水力壓裂法，解雇5.1萬名工人，大幅減薪，甚至破產(chǎn)。如今，隨著冠狀病毒疫情打擊需求，再過幾周，庫存就會(huì)被填滿，這是抑制產(chǎn)量的又一個(gè)因素。

上市公司削減了310多億美元的鉆井預(yù)算，而美國能源行業(yè)的不良債務(wù)已經(jīng)躍升至1,900億美元，在不到一周的時(shí)間里增加了110多億美元。截至周二，在10家發(fā)行問題債券最多的公司中，石油公司占了5家。

Evercore ISI主辦的一個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會(huì)稱，今年第二和第三季度收入可能為零，這可能意味著美國大型石油勘探企業(yè)將消耗掉70億美元的流動(dòng)資金。Evercore的分析師表示，到最后，多達(dá)30%的上市頁巖勘探公司可能會(huì)被迫以這樣或那樣的方式退出市場。

裘寅 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Oil rout looks to break shale’s global oil dominance

A historic crash in crude prices is driving U.S. shale into full-on retreat with operators halting new drilling and shutting in old wells, moves that could cut output by 20% for the world’s biggest producer of oil.

For shale companies, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude went from hunker-down-and-ride-it-out mode to crisis mode in just a few days, with many now unsure whether there will even be a market for their oil. Some 1.75 million barrels a day is at immediate risk of shutting down while the number of new wells being brought online is forecast to plunge almost 90% by the end of the year, according to IHS Markit Ltd.

In short, it’s a swift and brutal end to the shale revolution, which only last year had President Donald Trump proclaiming “American Energy Dominance.”

West Texas Intermediate crude prices turned negative for the first time in history on Monday, meaning at one point sellers had to pay buyers to take it away. Then, the financial squeeze on the May contract spilled over to June and into the wider market, with prices now trading around $10 a barrel, well below the daily pumping cost in large swaths of America’s oil industry.

Even at $15, “everything back in the field, except the newest and most productive wells, is losing money on a cash-cost basis,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a Houston-based analyst at IHS Markit.

Operators are switching off wells, retiring one in three drill rigs, abandoning fracking, laying off 51,000 workers, slashing salaries and even going bankrupt just six weeks after the latest price plunge began. Now, with the coronavirus pandemic destroying demand, storage is just weeks away from filling up, a further factor choking back output.

Publicly-traded companies have axed more than $31 billion from drilling budgets, while distressed debt in the U.S. energy sector has jumped to $190 billion, up more than $11 billion in less than a week. Oil companies made up five of the top 10 issuers with the most distressed debt as of Tuesday.

The potential for zero revenues in the second and third quarters this year may mean that large U.S. oil explorers burn through $7 billion in liquidity, according to a Webinar hosted by Evercore ISI. By the end of it all, as many as 30% of publicly traded shale explorers could be forced to exit the market one way or another, the Evercore analysts said.

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標(biāo)簽：頁巖油 石油行業(yè)

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