據(jù)4月15日Neftegaz.RU.莫斯科報(bào)道，俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)股份公司(Gazprom)首席執(zhí)行官亞歷山大久科夫(Alexander Dyukov)表示在接受《生意人報(bào)》(Kommersant)采訪(fǎng)時(shí)表示，如果美國(guó)各州放松全國(guó)禁產(chǎn)令，石油需求改善，到今年年底，油價(jià)可能回升至每桶40至45美元。

他補(bǔ)充道，這是一個(gè)樂(lè)觀的設(shè)想，即下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)將相對(duì)較快地復(fù)蘇。現(xiàn)在還很難預(yù)測(cè)石油需求的走向，而指望油價(jià)大幅上漲是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的。

當(dāng)被問(wèn)及此次包括巴西、挪威和美國(guó)在內(nèi)的其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)加入的歐佩克+協(xié)議時(shí)，他指出，現(xiàn)在判斷該協(xié)議是否成功還為時(shí)過(guò)早。但對(duì)所有生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)，減產(chǎn)都是必要的。

歐佩克+本周末同意，從5月開(kāi)始，全球市場(chǎng)每日減產(chǎn)970萬(wàn)桶石油，并將持續(xù)2個(gè)月，之后將放寬至每日770萬(wàn)桶，直到2020年底。屆時(shí)，減產(chǎn)將降至每日580萬(wàn)桶，并將一直持續(xù)到2022年4月。

俄羅斯在歐佩克+削減總量中所占的份額為18%，這與該國(guó)在第一份歐佩克+協(xié)議中所占的份額相同。考慮到新加入的非歐佩克成員國(guó)，俄羅斯在總減產(chǎn)中所占的份額降至15%以下。

油價(jià)對(duì)歐佩克和20國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)產(chǎn)油國(guó)都將減產(chǎn)的消息反應(yīng)疲弱。在出現(xiàn)最初的上漲之后，縮減了收益。

從需求方面來(lái)看，現(xiàn)在是改變石油市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管方式的時(shí)候了。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，將焦點(diǎn)從5年平均供應(yīng)水平轉(zhuǎn)向石油需求增長(zhǎng)是很重要的。

簡(jiǎn)而言之，歐佩克+可以將指標(biāo)聚焦在全球石油需求的一部分，比如50%，并以滿(mǎn)足這部分需求的方式來(lái)計(jì)劃其產(chǎn)量。久科夫表示，這會(huì)防止其他石油市場(chǎng)參與者被擠出市場(chǎng)，另一方面也會(huì)抑制對(duì)昂貴的新生產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的投資。最終將使價(jià)格保持在一個(gè)可接受的水平，即每桶50美元。

王佳晶 摘譯自 Neftegaz.RU.

原文如下：

Gazprom Neft CEO: Oil could hit $45 this year

If US states ease national lockdowns and oil demand improves, oil prices could recover to $40-$45 a barrel by the end of this year, the chief executive of Gazprom Neft told Kommersant in an interview.

However, Alexander Dyukov said this was an optimistic scenario that envisaged a relatively quick recovery of economic activity during the 2nd half of the year. Right now, he said, it is not easy to predict where oil demand will go and expecting a sharp rise in prices would be unrealistic.

When asked about the OPEC+ deal that was this time joined by other producers, including Brazil, Norway, and the United States, Dyukov said it was too early to tell whether it was a success. Dyukov noted that a production cut is necessary for all producers.

OPEC+ agreed this weekend to remove 9.7 million bpd of oil from global markets, beginning in May. The cuts will be in effect for 2 months, after which they would relax to 7.7 million bpd until the end of 2020. The cuts will then drop to 5.8 million bpd, which will remain in effect until April 2022.

Russia’s portion of the total OPEC+ cuts is 18 %, Dyukov said, adding that this was the same portion that the country had in the 1st OPEC+ deal. With the new non-OPEC participants are factored in, Russia’s share of the total cuts falls to less than 15 %.

Oil prices reacted weakly to the news about the OPEC+ deal and the news that G20 oil producers will also contribute to the production cuts. After an initial spike, they trimmed their gains.

Speaking of demand, Gazprom Neft’s Dyukov told Kommersant it was time to change the way the oil market is regulated. “Over the long term,” he said, “it is important to move away from targeting the 5-year supply average to targeting the rise in oil demand.”

Simply put, according to the executive, OPEC+ can choose part of the global oil demand, say 50 %, and plan its production in such a way as to satisfy this portion. This, Dyukov says, will, on the one hand, prevent the squeezing out of other oil market players and, on the other, demotivate investments in costly new production projects. In the end, this would allow it to keep prices at an acceptable level, which Duykov sees at $50 a barrel.