據(jù)油田技術(shù)4月13日報道，IHS Markit原油市場服務公司發(fā)布了最新的石油市場評估報告。

世界石油需求的崩潰和低油價正在推動世界各地的石油公司大幅削減開支。到目前為止，降幅最大的是北美的勘探開發(fā)公司，這些公司主要生產(chǎn)石油和天然氣，其業(yè)務集中在美國和加拿大。根據(jù)IHS Herold計算，北美勘探開發(fā)公司計劃將2020年支出在2019年的基礎(chǔ)上削減36%。

這意味著，到2020年將較去年削減244億美元。國際石油公司也在大幅削減支出，削減幅度為20%至30%，其中相當一部分是美國業(yè)務。

與其他國家不同，美國政府不能強制削減開支。但市場經(jīng)濟和物流方面的限制，正迫使企業(yè)削減支出，這反映在企業(yè)支出的“大幅削減”上。

IHS Markit表示，支出大幅下降表明，美國原油產(chǎn)量將大幅下降。IHS估計，到2020年年底，美國原油日產(chǎn)量將比第一季度下降290萬桶。加拿大的主要產(chǎn)油省——阿爾伯塔已經(jīng)通過減產(chǎn)政策限制了產(chǎn)量。2020年加拿大油砂的總投資將降至15年來最低水平。

幾乎所有的公司都在削減開支，一些公司的削減幅度甚至超過了50%。在已經(jīng)公布公共支出的44家北美勘探開發(fā)公司中，有41家支出較2019年的水平有所降低。今年支出將出現(xiàn)連續(xù)第二年下降——2018年北美勘探開發(fā)支出為870億美元。

其他地區(qū)的公司也在削減開支，但力度不及北美的勘探開發(fā)公司。國際石油公司和國有石油公司將在2020年削減24%的開支。

洪偉立 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

IHS Markit predicts 36% spending cut for North American E&P Companies in 2020

The IHS Markit Crude Oil Market Service has released its latest assessment on oil markets.

The collapse in world oil demand and low prices are driving large spending cuts among oil companies around the world. The largest cuts in percentage terms so far are coming from North American E&P companies—oil and gas producing companies focused on the US and Canada. According to IHS Herold calculations, North American E&P companies plan to reduce spending in 2020 by 36% relative to 2019 levels.

This translates to a US$24.4 billion cut in 2020 compared to last year. International oil companies are also cutting spending significantly, by 20% to 30%, with a substantial part for some coming from their operations in the US.

Unlike other countries, the US government cannot mandate cutbacks. But market economics and logistical constraints are mandating the cutbacks reflected in the “Big Cut” in company spending.

The key conclusions from the assessment are:

Much lower spending points to significant declines in US crude oil production. IHS currently estimate US crude oil production will fall 2.9 million bpd by the end of 2020 compared to 1Q20. Canada, whose main producing province of Alberta already has constrained production via its curtailment policy, will also be impacted. Total investment in the Canadian oilsands will be the lowest in 15 years.

Nearly all companies are reducing spending—including some by more than 50%. Of the 44 North America E&Ps that have made public spending announcements, 41 are cutting relative to 2019 levels. This year would mark the second consecutive year of lower spending. In 2018 North American E&P spending was US$87 billion.

All other company categories are also cutting spending, but not as much as North American E&Ps. International oil companies and national oil companies are cutting spending by 24% in 2020.