據能源信息統(tǒng)計4月9日消息，根據美國能源情報署(EIA)的最新預測， 2020年美國原油產量預計將減少50萬桶/天(降幅4%)，至平均產量1180萬桶/天。這將是自2016年以來原油產量首次出現年度下降。2021年，美國原油產量將再下降70萬桶/天(降幅6%)，至1110萬桶/天。此外，2020年美國汽油消費量將下降9%，至840萬桶/天，而航空燃油和餾分燃油的消費量將分別下降10%和5%。

由于預期的原油產量下降，美國計劃在2020年增加原油凈進口量，同時減少出口。由于產量下降和全球需求減少，凈出口應該會下降，這將導致美國在2020年第三季度恢復為原油和石油產品凈進口國，并在2021年底前的大多數月份保持凈進口國的地位。

EIA指出，由于疫情對能源市場的影響仍在不斷發(fā)展，因此其預測存在高度不確定性。此外，政府機構假設不重新執(zhí)行歐佩克+協(xié)議。

裘寅 編譯自 enerdata

原文如下：

EIA forecasts a 1.2 mb/d drop in US crude oil production in 2020-2021

According to the latest forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US crude oil production is expected to decrease by 0.5 mb/d (-4%) in 2020 to an average of 11.8 mb/d . It would be the first annual decline in crude oil production since 2016. In 2021, US crude oil production should decrease by another 0.7 mb/d (-6%) and would reach 11.1 mb/d. In addition, US motor gasoline consumption is set to fall by 9% in 2020 to 8.4 mb/d, while jet fuel and distillate fuel oil consumption decreasing by 10% and 5%, respectively.

With the expected decline in crude oil production, US net crude oil imports are planned to increase in 2020, while fewer barrels will be available for exports. Net exports should decline due to this lower production and to a reduced global demand, leading the United States to become a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and to remain a net importer in most months through the end of 2021.

The EIA indicates that its forecast is subject to a high uncertainty due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on energy markets, which is still evolving. Moreover, the government agency assumes no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement.