據(jù)4月9日FXstreet報(bào)道，因市場(chǎng)預(yù)期全球最大的產(chǎn)油國(guó)最終將同意減產(chǎn)，大西洋兩岸的石油期貨價(jià)格大幅上漲。一個(gè)多月前，歐佩克+減產(chǎn)協(xié)議到期，導(dǎo)致全球石油供應(yīng)激增，盡管該行業(yè)正面臨需求的崩潰。

布倫特原油已從3月份的低點(diǎn)反彈了一半，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格則上漲了34%。然而，自今年年初以來，這兩種基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)仍下跌了一半以上。

根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署數(shù)據(jù)，在石油需求方面，美國(guó)每天減少1440萬桶。根據(jù)FGE的數(shù)據(jù)，全球第三大消費(fèi)國(guó)印度的需求已經(jīng)暴跌了18%，而該國(guó)煉油廠的前景更為黯淡，其需求在4月初下降了三分之二以上。

有趣的是，石油期貨的交易量在上升，但實(shí)際購(gòu)買者可以以更低的價(jià)格購(gòu)買——北美一些品級(jí)的原油以低于每桶10美元的價(jià)格出售。這反映了現(xiàn)階段能源市場(chǎng)的困境和供過于求的現(xiàn)狀，許多人對(duì)沙特和俄羅斯達(dá)成協(xié)議給市場(chǎng)帶來穩(wěn)定表示懷疑。

鑒于當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重程度，沙特和俄羅斯達(dá)成協(xié)議的可能性很大。市場(chǎng)價(jià)格顯示，原油日產(chǎn)量將減少1000萬至1500萬桶。這可能會(huì)在短期內(nèi)推高價(jià)格，但如果需求在4月底前沒有復(fù)蘇，那么供需平衡將再次受到影響。根據(jù)最新的估計(jì)，全球石油日需求下降了近2500萬桶，而人們期待的減產(chǎn)幅度仍遠(yuǎn)未達(dá)到平衡水平。

為了達(dá)成一項(xiàng)更有意義的協(xié)議，需要美國(guó)的加入，但鑒于美國(guó)所有的生產(chǎn)商都是私營(yíng)企業(yè)，這使得這項(xiàng)任務(wù)非常困難。另一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的來源可能來自周五的20國(guó)集團(tuán)緊急能源部長(zhǎng)會(huì)議，如果更多的產(chǎn)油國(guó)加入這項(xiàng)協(xié)議，大型石油消費(fèi)國(guó)通過增加其戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備為需求方做出貢獻(xiàn)，那么這將為油價(jià)提供一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定因素。

洪偉立 摘譯自 FXstreet

原文如下：

Oil bulls are betting on OPEC+ production curb; will it be enough?

Oil futures jumped on both sides of the Atlantic on expectations the world’s biggest producers would finally agree on production cuts. That comes a little over a month after the expired OPEC+ deal led to a surge of crude production by Saudi Arabia in a fight for market share, despite the industry being confronted with the coronavirus-driven collapse in demand.

Brent crude has managed to recover half of its losses from the March lows, while WTI has gained 34%. However, both Benchmarks have still lost more than half their value since the beginning of the year.

In terms of demand, the US has seen a fall of 14.4 million barrels a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration. India, the world’s third-largest consumer, has seen a plunge in demand of 18% according to FGE, but refineries are painting a more gloomy picture saying their demand tumbled by more than two-thirds in early April.

Interestingly, Oilfutures are trading higher but physical purchasers can buy at a much lower price, with some grades in North America being sold at a price tag of less than $10 a barrel. That reflects the current distress and glut in energy markets at this stage with many wondering whether a Saudi – Russian deal will bring stability back to the market.

Given the magnitude of the current economic crisis, there’s a high chance of a deal being struck. Markets are pricing a 10 – 15 million barrels a day cut in oil production. That could send prices a little higher in the short term, but fundamentals will still rule further out and if demand doesn’t recover by the end of April, then that supply-demand equation will again look terrible. According to the latest estimates, global demand has fallen by nearly 25 million barrels a day and the awaited cut is still far from balancing the equation.

To have a more meaningful deal, the US needs to jump in, but given that all US producers are private companies, it makes this mission very difficult. Another source of stability could come from Friday’s G20 emergency energy minister’s meeting. If more producers join the deal and large oil consumers contribute to the demand side by adding to their strategic oil reserves, this shouldprovide a longer-term stability factor to prices.