據(jù)路透社4月7日倫敦報(bào)道，油價(jià)周二小幅升至正區(qū)間，因全球主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)將同意減產(chǎn)的希望蓋過(guò)了分析師對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退可能比預(yù)期更嚴(yán)重的擔(dān)憂。

截至格林威治時(shí)間09:36，布倫特原油LCOc1上漲83美分，漲幅2.5%，至每桶33.88美元，周一跌幅超過(guò)3%。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)上漲95美分，至27.03美元，漲幅3.6%，前一交易日下跌近8%。

法國(guó)巴黎銀行分析師Harry Tchilinguirian在接受路透社全球石油論壇采訪時(shí)稱：“市場(chǎng)預(yù)期建立在每日減產(chǎn)1000萬(wàn)桶或至少接近1000萬(wàn)桶的基礎(chǔ)上，油價(jià)持穩(wěn)。”

消息人士對(duì)路透社表示，包括沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯在內(nèi)的全球主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)將在周四的會(huì)議上同意減產(chǎn)，但這將取決于美國(guó)是否加入。

然而，在疫情對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)造成打擊后，嚴(yán)重衰退的威脅籠罩著市場(chǎng)，全球一半人口處于某種形式的封鎖或社會(huì)隔離措施之下。

全球石油需求下降了30%之多，與此同時(shí)，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯在之前的一份產(chǎn)量協(xié)議破裂后，采取了向市場(chǎng)大量供應(yīng)額外石油的舉措。

雷斯塔能源的Bjornar Tonhaugen表示：“4月和5月石油市場(chǎng)將分別出現(xiàn)每日2800萬(wàn)桶和2100萬(wàn)桶的供過(guò)于求，真正需要的全球協(xié)同減產(chǎn)量可能過(guò)大，產(chǎn)油國(guó)難以接受；也許是討論數(shù)字的兩倍。”

歐佩克和包括俄羅斯在內(nèi)的其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)近年來(lái)一直在削減產(chǎn)量，盡管美國(guó)提高了自己的產(chǎn)量，成為世界上最大的原油生產(chǎn)國(guó)。

美國(guó)是否會(huì)加入任何限制供應(yīng)的協(xié)調(diào)行動(dòng)，這是個(gè)問(wèn)題。

裘寅 編譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil rises as hopes build for global production cut

Oil prices clawed their way into positive territory on Tuesday as hopes that the world’s biggest producers will agree to cut output outweighed analyst fears that a global recession in the wake of the coronavirus crisis could be deeper than expected.

Brent crude LCOc1 was up 83 cents, or 2.5%, at $33.88 a barrel by 0936 GMT after falling more than 3% on Monday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was up 95 cents, or 3.6%, at $27.03, having dropped nearly 8% in the previous session.

“Oil prices are holding their ground with market expectations building on an agreement for an output reduction of 10 million barrels per day (bpd), or at least close to 10 million bpd,” BNP Paribas analyst Harry Tchilinguirian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

The world’s main oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are expected to agree to cut output at a meeting on Thursday, though that would depend on the United States joining in, sources told Reuters.

However, the threat of a major recession hangs over the market after the hit to economic activity as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, with half the global population under some form of lockdown or social distancing measures.

Worldwide oil demand has dropped by as much as 30%, coinciding with moves by Saudi Arabia and Russia to flood markets with extra supply after a previous output deal fell apart.

“With 28 million bpd of oversupply in the oil market in April and 21 million bpd in May, the global coordinated production cuts that are really needed may be too large for the producers to accept; perhaps twice as large as the numbers being discussed,” said Rystad Energy’s Bjornar Tonhaugen.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, had been curtailing production in recent years even as the United States ramped up its own output to become the world’s biggest crude producer.

There are questions whether the United States would join any coordinated action to curb supply.

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