據今日海上能源網站3月31日消息 東南亞鉆機市場原本預計在2020年增長，但現在卻將出現下滑。一份雷斯塔能源的分析顯示，由于Covid-19大流行和持續的油價戰的影響，一些石油公司已經大幅削減了2020年的資本支出預算。

據雷斯塔能源稱，東南亞的勘探與生產公司一直非常謹慎，將鉆井平臺鎖定在長期合同，因此不太可能行使期權。

雷斯塔預計，如果在2020年剩余時間內沒有簽訂新合同，也沒有行使任何期權，該地區的利用率將在3月至12月下降54%，這意味著較2019年水平同比下降18%。

在2020年地區市場的選擇中，40%是與馬國油合作。因此，今年的市場發展將相當依賴于馬國油決定行使的期權數量。

馬來西亞國家石油公司正積極努力，盡可能保持運營的平穩，與當地人員合作的鉆井平臺可能不會受到很大的限制。然而，在馬來西亞最近宣布將封鎖期延長兩周后，由于船員受限，在該國運營的幾座鉆井平臺預計將在未來幾周內停止作業。

今年在東南亞計劃的大部分鉆井項目都由棕地工程組成，雷斯塔預計，運營商將在填充鉆井部分減少大部分鉆井預算。

雷斯塔能源資深油田服務分析師Jo Friedmann說：“稍微樂觀一點的是，與其他地區市場相比，在東南亞（國家石油公司傾向于支持國家鉆井承包商），現有鉆井平臺合同可能面臨的終止風險較小。這并不是說不會有任何合同終止，但我們預計其強度將低于全球。”

吳恒磊 編譯自 今日海上能源

原文如下：

Rig utilization in Southeast Asia set for decline, Rystad’s analysis shows

Southeast Asia’s rig market, which was poised for growth in 2020, is now set for a decline. Several oil companies have already made significant cuts to their 2020 capex budgets due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, a Rystad Energy’s analysis shows.

According to Rystad Energy, E&Ps in Southeast Asia have been very cautious by locking in rigs on long-term contacts, making it unlikely that options will be exercised.

Rystad sees that if no new contracts are signed and no options are exercised for the remainder of 2020, utilization will drop by 54% in the region from March to December. This translates to an 18% year-on-year drop from 2019 levels.

Of the options in the regional market for 2020, 40% are for work with Petronas. Therefore, market development this year will be quite dependent on the volume of options that Petronas decides to exercise.

Petronas is proactively striving to keep operations running as smoothly as possible, and rigs with local crews might not be greatly inhibited. However, after the recently announced two-week extension of the lockdown in Malaysia, several rigs operating in the country are expected to gear down activity in the next few weeks due to crew timeout.

Most of the planned drilling programs in Southeast Asia this year are comprised of brownfield work, and Rystad expects operators to reduce their drilling budgets most within the infill drilling segment.

“On a slightly more positive note, existing rig contracts probably face less danger of being terminated in Southeast Asia – where national oil companies tend to support the national drilling contractor – than in other regional markets. That is not to say there won’t be any contract terminations, but we expect the intensity to be lower than it is globally,“ said Rystad Energy’s senior oilfield service analyst, Jo Friedmann.