據(jù)3月30日Financial Times報(bào)道，油價(jià)暴跌不僅讓非洲產(chǎn)油國面臨收入損失，還讓它們來之不易的市場份額中不斷丟失，可能還無法重新獲得。

非洲大陸的產(chǎn)油國，如尼日利亞、安哥拉和阿爾及利亞，無法與昔日盟友沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯的低成本競爭。而沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯正在向市場大量供應(yīng)石油。

剛果共和國石油部長3月20日致函歐佩克秘書長默罕默德·巴爾金多(Mohammad Barkindo)，呼吁召開緊急會(huì)議，以找尋避免成員國陷入石油經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的辦法。

盡管英國、挪威和美國等非歐佩克國家的石油生產(chǎn)成本都相對(duì)較高，但由于經(jīng)濟(jì)多樣化，它們并不依賴石油。

油價(jià)下跌不僅打擊了本已吃緊的預(yù)算，還導(dǎo)致石油巨頭削減了數(shù)十億美元的支出計(jì)劃。這對(duì)開采成本較高的非洲油田的長期影響可能要痛苦得多。

IHS Markit非洲首席研究分析師羅德里克·布魯斯(Roderick Bruce)表示:“企業(yè)每天都在評(píng)估它們的整體投資組合。到2020年，非洲大陸的最終投資決定可能會(huì)觸及歷史低點(diǎn)。”

如果不進(jìn)行海外油田投資，尼日利亞石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將下降35%。Rystad Energy估計(jì)，在整個(gè)非洲，推遲投資可能意味著到2025年日產(chǎn)量將減少20萬桶。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Financial Times

原文如下：

Double whammy of plunging oil and pandemic hits African producers

Collapsing oil prices have left African producers facing not only lost revenue when they most need it to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, but also a fall in hard-won market share they may never regain.

The continent’s producers such as Nigeria, Angola and Algeria cannot compete with the lower costs of erstwhile allies Saudi Arabia and Russia, who are flooding the market with oil.

In a sign of their desperation, the Republic of Congo’s oil minister wrote to Opec secretary-general Mohammad Barkindo on March 20 calling for an urgent meeting to find a way to keep member nations from sinking into recession.

Though non-Opec nations such as Britain, Norway and the US all have relatively high-cost production, due to their diversified economies they are not dependent on oil.

As well as hitting already tight budgets, the oil price drop had led oil majors to cut billions from spending plans. The longer-term impact for the comparatively costly African fields could be far more painful.

“Companies are reviewing their whole portfolios on a daily basis,” said Roderick Bruce, principal research analyst for Africa at IHS Markit, which forecasts final investment decisions on the continent could hit historic lows in 2020.

African countries are “in a very difficult position”, Bruce added, citing their higher production costs.

In Nigeria production is forecast to fall 35% without offshore field investments. Across Africa, Rystad Energy estimates delayed spending could mean a drop of 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in expected output by 2025.