據(jù)今日油價2月23日報道，當(dāng)前，全球石油供應(yīng)過剩, 加拿大西部的石油生產(chǎn)將需要從4月份開始削減約11%,即44萬桶/天, Rystad Energy估計,該國石油儲備空間即將耗盡。

加拿大西部儲油基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的最大儲油能力普遍為大約4000萬桶。據(jù)計算，目前已有超過3000萬桶原油和稀釋瀝青庫存，按照目前的產(chǎn)量計算，到3月底，這些庫存可能會接近最高存儲量。

Rystad Energy預(yù)計，加拿大西部的石油產(chǎn)量，將達到約400萬桶/天，如今將不得不削減總44萬桶，以平衡當(dāng)?shù)丶s3500萬桶的儲存量。這意味著鐵路出口的原油將至少減少75%，至10萬桶/天。

去年第二季，加拿大西部石油日產(chǎn)量約為394萬桶。3月11日，阿爾伯塔省省長杰森·肯尼提出了減產(chǎn)的可能性，但省政府尚未正式宣布減產(chǎn)。

到目前為止，大多數(shù)運營商在近期減產(chǎn)的問題上還不是很明確，不過一些主要運營商已經(jīng)下調(diào)了全年產(chǎn)量預(yù)期。

洪偉立 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Canada Braces For Oil Cuts As Storage Nears Limit

The ongoing oil price war have created such a large global supply surplus that Western Canada’s oil production will need to be cut from April by some 11%, or 440,000 barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates, as the country is days away from running out of available storage capacity.

Western Canada’s storage infrastructure has a generally accepted maximum storage capacity of approximately 40 million barrels. Based on our calculations, more than 30 million barrels of crude oil and diluted bitumen is already held in storage, and the volume is likely to edge towards the high end of capacity by the end of March under current production assumptions.

As a result, Western Canada’s oil production, which Rystad Energy expected to reach some 4 million bpd in its pre-coronavirus estimate, will now probably have to be cut by a total of 440,000 barrels to balance local storage volumes around 35 million barrels. This incorporates at least a 75% reduction in crude-by-rail exports to 100,000 bpd.

In the second quarter last year, Western Canada’s oil production amounted to about 3.94 million bpd.

On 11 March, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney raised the possibility of production curtailments, but reductions have not yet been officially announced by the provincial government.

So far, most operators have not been very vocal on the issue of near-term cuts, although some of the major players have revised their full-year production guidance downwards.