據(jù)俄羅斯油氣網(wǎng)3月24日新德里報道，隨著疫情在全世界蔓延，全球石油價格大幅下跌，印度國內(nèi)80%的原油需要依賴進(jìn)口，下個財政年度，印度石油進(jìn)口的費(fèi)用可能節(jié)省高達(dá)450億美元。

原油價格每下跌1美元，印度石油進(jìn)口賬單就會減少15億美元。今年國際原油價格預(yù)計將從去年的每桶65美元降至平均每桶35美元，降幅約為每桶30美元。印度預(yù)計在2020-21財政年度內(nèi)全年石油進(jìn)口將節(jié)省大約450億美元。

印度媒體報道說，疫情已經(jīng)使全球經(jīng)濟(jì)脫軌，增加了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的可能性。印度已經(jīng)面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)增長減速，在2019- 2020財年的第3季度，印度GDP增長率下降到了4.7%。

疫情對印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響可能會在第4季度使其進(jìn)一步下降。如果不立即采取政策行動，到2020-21財年，印度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增長率可能下滑至5%以下。

為了改善市場情緒，印度政府可能會考慮取消10%的長期資本利得稅，并將股息分配稅固定在25%。

李峻 編譯自 俄羅斯油氣網(wǎng)

原文如下：

India to save $45 billion on oil imports next fiscal, says CII

According to Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), with the spread of the coronavirus denting global oil prices, India, that imports 80 % of its crude oil needs, is likely to save a whopping $45 billion on oil imports next financial year, Indian ETEnergyWorld reported.

A $1 decline in the price of crude oil reduces the country's import bill by $1.5 billion. "In 2020, international crude oil prices are expected to average $35 per barrel from $65 per barrel in 2019, a fall of about $30 per barrel. India is expected to save about $45 billion on oil imports for full year 2020-21," the industry chamber said in a report.

The rapidly spreading Covid-19 has derailed the global economy, increasing the chances of a global recession setting in, it said, adding India has already been facing growth deceleration, with GDP growth having fallen to 4.7 % in 3rd quarter of 2019-20.

The impact of coronavirus is likely to pull it down further in the 4th quarter. GDP growth could slide to below 5 % in 2020-21 if policy action is not taken urgently.

In order to improve market sentiments, the government may consider removing Long Term Capital Gains tax of 10 % and fixing the total Dividend Distribution Tax at 25 %.