據3月9日Hydrocarbon processing報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)《2020年度能源展望》預測，到2050年，受經濟和政策因素的推動，美國生物燃料產量在2050年之前緩慢增長。參考案例反映，2050年的生物燃料產量將比2019年高出18%。然而，在全球原油價格上漲的情況下，燃料乙醇和生物柴油等生物燃料越來越多地被用作石油產品的替代品，如果是這樣的話，到2050年生物燃料產量將增長55%。

美國乙醇出口的增加抵消了國內乙醇混合汽油消費量預計的下降。從2019年到預測期結束，生物柴油和其他生物燃料的產量分別增加了3萬桶/天和8萬桶/天。雖然沒有包括在AEO2020的預測中，但在2019年12月更新的生物柴油混合燃料的稅收抵免，預計將增加國內生產和生物柴油的凈進口。

生物燃料消費的增長是由美國運輸部門預計的液體燃料消費下降、油價上漲和可再生燃料標準(RFS)等法規支撐的。在AEO2020的參考案例中，生物燃料在國內汽油、餾分油和航空燃料市場中所占的份額相對較小，但卻在不斷增長。混合在汽油、柴油和航空燃料中的生物燃料的比例預計將從2019年的7.3%上升到2040年9.0%的高位，然后在2050年略微下降。

AEO2020高油價案例假設外國對美國生產的生物燃料的需求高于預期。運輸燃料價格的上漲使生物燃料在價格上比石油燃料更有競爭力。EIA預測，美國的生物燃料消費和生物燃料消費份額的增長速度將遠遠高于參考案例。在這種情況下，到2050年，國內生物燃料的消耗量將增加到162萬桶/天。

在AEO2020低油價案例中，國內生物燃料消費與參考案例相似。EIA預測，低油價將導致國內生物柴油(生物柴油和可再生柴油)消費的減少。由于汽油價格較低，國內生產的燃料乙醇被更多地混合到車用汽油中，因此生物燃料的總消耗量略有增加。當石油產品價格低、生物燃料在經濟上缺乏競爭力時，諸如RFS和加州的低碳燃料標準等法規支持了對生物燃料的需求。

鄒勤 摘譯自 Hydrocarbon processing

原文如下：

U.S. EIA projects U.S. biofuel production to slowly increase through 2050

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) projects that U.S. biofuel production will slowly grow through 2050, primarily driven by economic and policy factors. In the Reference case, which reflects current laws and regulations, biofuels production in 2050 is 18% higher than 2019 levels. However, in a side case with higher global crude oil prices, biofuels such as fuel ethanol and biodiesel are increasingly consumed as substitutes for petroleum products, resulting in 55% growth in biofuels production in 2050 in that case.

The projected decline in domestic ethanol-blended gasoline consumption is offset by increasing U.S. ethanol exports. From 2019 to the end of the projection period, domestic production of biodiesel and other biofuels increases by 30,000 barrels/day (b/d) and 80,000 b/d, respectively. Although not included in the AEO2020 projections, the biodiesel blender’s tax credit, renewed in December 2019, is expected to increase domestic production and net imports of biomass-based diesel.

Biofuels consumption growth is supported by a projected decline in consumption of liquid fuels by the U.S. transportation sector, rising oil prices, and regulations such as the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In the AEO2020 Reference case, biofuels represent a relatively small but growing share of the domestic gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel market. The percentage of biofuels blended into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel is expected to increase from 7.3% in 2019 to a high of 9.0% in 2040 before slightly declining through 2050.

The AEO2020 High Oil Price case assumes greater levels of foreign demand for U.S.-produced biofuels than in the Reference case. Higher prices for transportation fuels make biofuels more price competitive with petroleum-based fuels. EIA projects both U.S. biofuels consumption and the share of biofuels consumption to rise at a substantially higher rate than in the Reference case. In this scenario, domestic biofuels consumption increases to 1.62 million b/d, or a 13.5% biofuels share, in 2050.

In the AEO2020 Low Oil Price case, domestic biofuel consumption remains similar to the Reference case. EIA projects low oil prices contribute to a decrease in domestic consumption of biomass-based diesel (biodiesel and renewable diesel). Total biofuel consumption increases slightly as low gasoline prices result in greater amounts of domestically produced fuel ethanol to be blended into motor gasoline. Demand for biofuels is supported by regulations such as the RFS and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard when prices of petroleum products are low and biofuels are less economically competitive.